College Football Week 12 Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Steve Makinen:
I had the realization this week that there are only three full regular season weekends left in the 2024 college football campaign. Feels like I was just writing about the week 0 games. Time sure does fly. Well, I wish it would have flown by a little faster this past Saturday, as there were some painful losses on my Best Bets once again. Now, I fully 100% own it when I miss a game completely, and there were a few of those last weekend once again, such as LSU, but I have a hard time with games like Army-North Texas last week when a 5.5-underdog wastes three separate possessions inside the opponent 3-yard line and fails to score in a 14-3 loss. I also hate it when a game looks so good at halftime, only for a complete scoring or team meltdown afterward. Ultimately, it was a 7-10 week to drop my season-long record to 95-83-4 ATS (53.4%). Week 12 is now upon us, and for as much as I’m getting tired of ranting the last few weeks, let’s get some winners and forget all that. As such, I have these Week 12 college football best bets after pouring through the VSiN College Football Analytics Report:East Carolina at Tulsa
Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ETThere are a few different motivations here on Thursday night that lead me to believe that East Carolina could be in for a big night at Tulsa. First, the Pirates are playing well recently, riding a two-game winning streak in which they’ve outscored opponents 105-48. Second, there is a bowl bid on the line for ECU, as they stand at 5-4 with a couple of tougher games to come after this one, making it more of a “must-win” in that regard.
Third, Tulsa won the head-to-head matchup last year 29-27, setting up a nice revenge scenario, and there are two separate systems in play regarding that angle: 1) Double-digit road favorites have been solid producers in the revenge role, going 51-40 ATS (56%) since 2016. 2) Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been very successful, going 216-170 ATS (56%) since 2016. This is somewhat of a public game for bettors on ECU, but no worries, when the majority of the number of bets has backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022 and 2023 season record was 62.5%! This year, it’s just 18-25 ATS, dropping the overall system mark to 168-115 ATS (59.4%).
Week 12 College Football Best Bet: Let’s go East Carolina -14.5 to get a bowl-clinching win and cover
Wyoming at Colorado State
Friday, 8:00 p.m. ETThis was expected to be a rebuilding season for Wyoming, as the Cowboys transitioned to a new staff after the retirement of longtime Head Coach Craig Bohl. They went into the campaign with one of the lowest stability scores in the country. The 2-7 record currently is not a surprise. What is surprising is the third-year surge for Colorado State under head coach Jay Norvell. The Rams are on pace to play in the Mountain West Championship game. They are one of two teams that remain unbeaten in the conference standings, and the rest of the schedule looks very doable.
I wouldn’t expect CSU to let a stand-alone Friday night TV game get away from them in such a motivational spot. Speaking of motivation, Norvell’s team might still be thinking of losing to the Cowboys in each of the last three seasons. Therefore, revenge should be front and center: college football teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 99-17 SU and 75-36-5 ATS (67.6%) since 2016. The hosts in this series have also won the last five ATS.
Week 12 College Football Best Bet: I got Colorado State -10 to lay the hammer on Friday.
UCLA at Washington
Friday, 9:00 p.m. ETWith all due respect to the recent surge by UCLA in winning three straight games, I think the streak has bought this line down to a very manageable number for Washington at -4. The Huskies are 5-4 and, by all rights, have a bowl bid on the line in this game, as they are set to travel to Oregon for the season finale. You’d have to think that first-year head coach Jedd Fisch has set making a bowl in this transitional season as a priority. His team has yet to lose at home in five games, running the overall home winning streak to 19 straight.
From a matchup perspective, this figures to be a big game for UW QB Will Rogers, as the Bruins allow a lofty 7.3 yards per attempt. At home, he is averaging an impressive 8.7 yards per attempt. All of my strength indicators show that Huskies are underpriced by about 1.5 points here, and with bowl motivation, home field, and double-revenge also coming into play, I see enough reasons to back Washington here.
Week 12 College Football Best Bet: I’ll take Washington on Friday night to cover the -4
Florida Atlantic at Temple
Saturday, 2:00 p.m. ETThere are just certain ugly games throughout the season where it just makes no sense to lay points. Recall the Akron-Kent State game from earlier this season when no matter how much it separated, favored Akron could never hold the lead enough and cover. Well, if you want to lay points with Temple, that’s your choice, but I would just rather be on the other side. Especially since 70% of the handle and 65% of the bets at DraftKings are on the Owls as of press time.
FAU also seems to be playing a little better offensively lately, averaging over a TD more in the last five games compared to Temple. The Owls come off an ugly 52-6 loss at Tulane setting up this fade angle: Teams playing at home in conference games and coming off a blowout loss by more than 45 points are just 43-73 ATS (37.1%) since 2010. They are also just 3-15 ATS in their last 18 conference games when coming off a road loss. My numbers say this should be no higher than a 1-point line.
Week 12 College Football Best Bet: I’ll go with the less ugly option, FAU +2.5, in this ugly game
Texas at Arkansas
Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ETI’ve seen a couple of stories this week indicating that Texas is not worthy of its #2 ranking in the latest CFP release, and that Saturday’s game at Arkansas looks like a potential landmine for the Longhorns. I’ll actually go the other way in that thinking and share some of my strength indicators that illustrate this being a matchup between two vastly different level teams. First off, with my power ratings showing Texas 71 and Arkansas 51, the line equates to Texas about -18, not -13.5. In terms of my effective strength indicators, the Longhorns are at +45.2, the Razorbacks at +22.5, an even bigger difference. Finally, in the bettors’ ratings, which analyze what the betting markets think of these teams, Texas is deemed to be about 17 points superior.
Now, with the playoff motivation still in front of them, head coach Steve Sarkisian’s team slides into a pair of nice ranked road team angles: In games week 12 or later in the season, ranked road teams are now 114-27 SU and 81-57-3 ATS (58.7%) vs. non-ranked home teams since 2017. Digging deeper into this data, you will find that when these ranked road teams are favored by more than 6 points against non-ranked hosts, they have gone 97-10 SU and 64-40-3 ATS (61.5%%) in that same Week 12 and later time span. I don’t like that the Razorbacks gave up 63 to Ole Miss either. This could be a big day for QB Quinn Ewers and the Texas attack.
Week 12 College Football Best Bet: I’ll lay the 13.5 points with Texas here
Clemson at Pittsburgh
Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ETIn the game just above, I wrote about Texas claiming a pair of ranked road team systems. Well, Clemson qualifies for the same angles: 1) In games week 12 or later in the season, ranked road teams are now 114-27 SU & 81-57-3 ATS (58.7%) vs. non-ranked home teams since 2017. 2) Digging deeper into this data, you will find that when these ranked road teams are favored by more than 6 points against non-ranked hosts, they have gone 97-10 SU and 64-40-3 ATS (61.5%%) in that same Week 12 and later time span.
The Tigers have been flying below the radar this season since the opening loss to Georgia, a game that got away from them after a very competitive first half. While head coach Dabo Swinney’s team also suffered a loss to Louisville, they rebounded nicely with a win at Virginia Tech. That wasn’t a big surprise since Clemson is 21-10 (67.7%) ATS in Road/Neutral games since ’20. Here, they face another game that might be considered difficult on paper. However, Pitt has lost its mojo after a 7-2 start and is in the danger zone of slipping into free fall mode with this game and trips to Louisville and Boston College remaining.
Week 12 College Football Best Bet: Let’s lay the 10-points on the road with Clemson
Rutgers at Maryland
Saturday, 6:00 p.m. ETI am a person who admits when he is wrong, and I was very wrong about Rutgers throwing in the towel on the season after the four straight losses evened their mark at 4-4. I should have known that head coach Greg Schiano and his disciplined, gritty approach to coaching a team wouldn’t let that happen, and I paid the price for my bad judgment when the Knights pulled the upset over Minnesota last Saturday. Now, they have a chance to clinch a second straight bowl bid this week at Maryland, and they are a pretty sizable underdog to a Maryland team that is looking more and more like an unlikely bowl participant this season.
I have nothing that says this number should be much more than 3 points at this time, especially with the Terps offense putting up just 20 PPG in their last four. They’ve also lost their last three ATS as home favorites. Plus, when you analyze the unusual betting splits action as of Thursday, with 89% of the handle on Maryland, but 54% of the bets on Rutgers, it falls into two nice systems: 1) Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 116-133 ATS (46.6%), 2) When the majority number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone 146-124 ATS (54.1%).
Week 12 College Football Best Bet: Let’s take the points here (+5.5) with Rutgers
Washington State at New Mexico
Saturday, 9:30 p.m. ETWith its only loss coming at the hands of Boise State, Washington State and its 8-1 record are quietly hanging around the CFP fringe outliers. At #18, the Cougars are in striking distance of a spot, and for as much as a berth is unlikely in the end because of their schedule strength and other more political factors, it had to be motivating for them to see their resume up for analysis early this week. For Saturday, they are in a position of perhaps capitalizing on a game I might refer to as a “hidden blowout.” If you look at my effective points for/points against averages and how much teams score or allow compared to their opponents’ averages, WaSU could be in line for a huge outing. In fact, they outscore their opponents’ effective defensive allowances by 14 PPG. That puts them in line for 49 points.
At the same time, New Mexico allows 8.6 PPG more on average than their opponents score. That also puts the Cougars in line for 49.2 points. Let’s face it: if we can count on Washington State getting 49 points here, wouldn’t you be willing to lay the 12.5 points? I sure would, and furthermore, in games Week 12 or later in the season, ranked road teams are now 114-27 SU and 81-57-3 ATS (58.7%) vs. non-ranked home teams since 2017.
Week 12 College Football Best Bet: I look for Washington State (-12.5) to roll at New Mexico on Saturday
Kansas at BYU
Saturday, 10:15 p.m. ETIt would seem that there is some newfound belief in Kansas after a recent stretch of 2-1 SU and 0-3 ATS following a 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS start. If you’re doing the math, yes, the Jayhawks are 3-6 on the season and needing wins over BYU, Colorado, and Baylor to make a bowl game. Let’s face it: that’s not going to happen. Thus, I have to question the wisdom of oddsmakers installing them as just 2.5-point road dogs in Provo this weekend. The Big 12-leading Cougars are 4-0 as hosts in 2024, having scored at least 38 points every time out. The atmosphere has also become one of the most raucous in all of college football as the locals have embraced this underdog coming to life at 9-0. Why would it unravel now? To a 3-6 team nonetheless?
I have some systems that say it won’t: 1) Current won-lost records are a good indicator of revenge chances, as college football teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 99-17 SU and 75-36-5 ATS (67.6%) since 2016. 2) In games Week 12 or later in the season, there has been a huge discrepancy in the performance of ranked home teams against non-ranked visitors at the 12-point favorite line mark. As favorites of 12-points or more, they have gone 97-12 SU but just 43-60-2 ATS (41.7%), but at any other line, including underdog, they are 35-6 SU and 27-14 ATS (65.9%) since 2017. I’m not going to trick myself into why this line is lower than expected.
Week 12 College Football Best Bet: I’ll lay the 2.5-points with BYU
Louisville at Stanford
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ETI’m not typically a big fan of laying 20 points on the road in a conference game in college football, but Louisville and Stanford are headed in completely opposite directions right now, and the big point spread for their game in Palo Alto is certainly warranted. First off, let’s not forget the late-season systems I have touted in a couple of other games so far: In games Week 12 or later in the season, ranked road teams are now 114-27 SU and 81-57-3 ATS (58.7%) vs. non-ranked home teams since 2017. Digging deeper into this data, you will find that when these ranked road teams are favored by more than 6 points against non-ranked hosts, they have gone 97-10 SU and 64-40-3 ATS (61.5%%) in that same Week 12 and later time span.
It seems that the chances of these big favorites playing more focused ball are better on the road, as it is probably pounded into their minds all week about how “dangerous” of a game it can be if a home team gets momentum. That’s the thing, they typically don’t. Stanford gave up 59 points last week to a far less offensively talented NC State team and has allowed 41 PPG in its current 0-6 SU & 0-5-1 ATS skid. The Cardinal are also 1-13 ATS in their last 14 conference games when coming off a road loss. It seems like a lot of points, but in my mind, it’s worth it.
Week 12 College Football Best Bet: I’ll the 20-points with Louisville at Stanford
Hawaii at Utah State
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ETTalk about unfamiliar territory. Hawaii has been a road favorite just twice in the last three calendar years, losing both games by a combined 69-34 margin. Now, coming off a near-miss upset over UNLV, and with a 4-6 record needing two wins to get to a bowl game, I could see where bettors might like the Warriors’ chances here. However, let’s look deeper at Hawaii and laying points. There are two specific trends I will cite: 1) Hawaii is 10-25 (28.6%) ATS as Favorite since 2015 2) Hawaii is just 3-17 ATS in its last 20 conference games when favored by single digits. On top of that, getting back to the UNLV loss, road teams in conference games coming off very close losses of less than 3 points have struggled lately, 77-106 ATS (42.1%) since 2011. I don’t trust Hawaii here.
Week 12 College Football Best Bet: I’ll go Utah State +2.5 as the home dog
Boston College at SMU
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ETThere’s a danger that comes when fan bases start talking about how their team is getting screwed over by some committee. Do you recall Florida State’s collapse after not making the four-team playoff last year? Well, SMU players have probably been hearing all week from their fans about how they deserve better than their current #14 ranking in the CFP standings. For as much as I might agree that the Mustangs’ resume is impressive and probably deserving of more, this type of talk can get into a team’s head, taking their eye off the prize, which for right now, is simply winning the next game over Boston College. The Mustangs were tripped up by BC in the Fenway Bowl last year, losing 23-14 despite being a 12-1/2 point favorite.
That sets them up for an interesting fade angle this week: Teams looking to avenge outright losses where they were double-digit favorites have struggled, going just 108-119 ATS (47.6%) since 2016. SMU is also in a danger spot regarding this big number, in games Week 12 or later in the season, there has been a huge discrepancy in the performance of ranked home teams against non-ranked visitors at the 12-point favorite line mark. As favorites of 12 points or more, they have gone 97-12 SU but just 43-60-2 ATS (41.7%). I don’t know if I’m ready to put SMU on upset alert, but this feels like too many points.
Week 12 College Football Best Bet: I’ll take Boston College at the 19-point underdog
Tennessee at Georgia
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ETIt’s somewhat surprising how rarely it happens, but when pairs of ranked teams get together with big point spreads, there is a very nice system on totals that comes into play: In college football games featuring two ranked teams with the home team being a double-digit favorite, Under the total boasts an impressive 40-15 (72.7%) record since the beginning of the 2017 season. For this Tennessee-Georgia contest, it makes sense from a matchup perspective as well, as neither of these teams has demonstrated a consistent ability to click offensively this season. In fact, if you look at recent games, both offenses are playing well below the capabilities they demonstrated earlier in the season. Tennessee scored 191 points in its first three games but just 157 in the six games since, and none of those latter games were against a defense as tough as Georgia’s.
The Bulldogs are off a game scoring just 10 points, tying for their fewest in a game since the 2021 opener. Should we expect both offenses to rebound in this high-profile clash? Well, considering that these are the #2 and #6 defenses in the country in terms of holding teams below their season averages, I would bet against it, and I will.
Week 12 College Football Best Bet: I’m looking at the UNDER 48 in a Tennessee-Georgia slugfest
Virginia at Notre Dame
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ETBy the looks of this 22.5-point line in the Virginia-Notre Dame tilt, it can be assumed that oddsmakers expect Virginia to roll over for the mighty Irish in South Bend on Sunday. After all, the Irish have put together a string of blowout wins to get to 8-1 on the season, including most recently, 52-3 versus Florida State. That said, Virginia is not FSU and at 5-4, still has plenty of reason to show up and be competitive here.
Not surprisingly, the betting public at DK is all over the hugely favored hosts, with 83% of the money going that way. Well, going back to the start of the 2022 season, when 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 116-133 ATS (46.6%). This is another game where the line may simply be too big to cover: In games week 12 or later in the season, there has been a huge discrepancy in the performance of ranked home teams against non-ranked visitors at the 12-point favorite line mark. As favorites of 12 points or more, they have gone 97-12 SU but just 43-60-2 ATS (41.7%). The Cavaliers come off a gritty win at Pittsburgh and are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS on the road this season, and in their toughest road spot so far, they hung 31 points on Clemson.
Week 12 College Football Best Bet: I’ll back Virginia +22.5 points on the road in South Bend
